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A Gartner Prediction Gone Horriby Wrong

Keep on BloggingThe technology analysts at Gartner have predicted that there will be around 100 million bloggers (do not read this as blogs) in the first half of 2007 but that will be the saturation point, the blogosphere will cease to grow from that day onwards.

Daryl Plummer, chief Gartner fellow, adds a thoughtful remark - "A lot of people have been in and out of this thing. Starting a blog is easy, maintaining it is hard. Everyone thinks they have something to say, until they're put on stage and asked to say it,"

While most of us would agree with Daryl's comment above, the same may not apply to the actual report on blogging trends in 2007.

Saying that the blogger count will reach it's peak level by 1H 2007 is somewhat equivalent to saying that the Internet user base will not grow after the first half of 2007.

The number of Internet users may not be growing very fast in the developed world (because most people already have Internet connections) but that doesn't hold true for the developing countries where the Internet user graph has just started to head north and will continue to move in the direction for the coming years as bandwidth becomes cheaper.

The more people getting hooked to the Internet means the birth of more bloggers and more blog readers.

Second, to be labeled as a "blogger", you don't have to write articles or opinions - even uploading pictures using the camera phone is a form of blogging. Now the number of mobile subscribers continues to grow with falling handset prices and rising income levels. Again, more people with cell phones means more bloggers.

As I look into my email archives with messages from curious teachers, journalists, students and even housewives who want to jump the blog bandwagon, the more difficult I find to digest this Gartner report.

Related: The More Popular You Get, The More You Blog