The technology analysts at Gartner have predicted that there will be around 100 million bloggers (do not read this as blogs) in the first half of 2007 but that will be the saturation point, the blogosphere will cease to grow from that day onwards.Daryl Plummer, chief Gartner fellow, adds a thoughtful remark - "A lot of people have been in and out of this thing. Starting a blog is easy, maintaining it is hard. Everyone thinks they have something to say, until they're put on stage and asked to say it,"
While most of us would agree with Daryl's comment above, the same may not apply to the actual report on blogging trends in 2007.
Saying that the blogger count will reach it's peak level by 1H 2007 is somewhat equivalent to saying that the Internet user base will not grow after the first half of 2007.
The number of Internet users may not be growing very fast in the developed world (because most people already have Internet connections) but that doesn't hold true for the developing countries where the Internet user graph has just started to head north and will continue to move in the direction for the coming years as bandwidth becomes cheaper.
The more people getting hooked to the Internet means the birth of more bloggers and more blog readers.
Second, to be labeled as a "blogger", you don't have to write articles or opinions - even uploading pictures using the camera phone is a form of blogging. Now the number of mobile subscribers continues to grow with falling handset prices and rising income levels. Again, more people with cell phones means more bloggers.
As I look into my email archives with messages from curious teachers, journalists, students and even housewives who want to jump the blog bandwagon, the more difficult I find to digest this Gartner report.
Related: The More Popular You Get, The More You Blog
Find this article at: http://labnol.blogspot.com/2006/12/gartner-prediction-gone-horriby-wrong.html
web: http://www.labnol.org/ email: amit@labnol.org
Reader Comments
That report is not applicable to developing countried as you said in the article. In my opinion, 2008 is for Internet what 2006 is for mobile. We are going to exponential growths in thecoming 2-3 years. BSNL is announced its plans to provide 1 MB/sec unlimited connection for just Rs. 900/-. Most of my educated friends (doctors) still know nothing about blogging. These are future bloggers.
Written on 15/12/06 11:18 PM
True that indians will start blogging more - thats because this is the starting point for most of the indians and not the saturation point.
Just a few hrs back I was off the phone with a friend of mine with whom I had a tough time explaining how to get a blog started and done. For a person who works online all day long using the company's intranet and filtered internet, I find it hard to believe that he has no clue of blogging and not being able to gulp it down immediately. I got to help him out to get it setup where their (+ other authors) only job would be just to post regularly !
I understand this blog started in 2004, but thats for an indian blog I believe. Hindustani blogs will rise to the occasion starting from 2007.
Bloghosts: be ready to get superior infrastructure as this is far from saturation.
Written on 15/12/06 11:25 PM
Why people read blogs? Do we read matt cutts because of his writing abilities. No, only because he is matt cutts and is from Google (he is a brand inside brand). We want to listen to Matt and blog is the only way (may be video blogs will go more famous). Amit writes good reviews and thus people want to read his blog.
Blogopshere will not saturate but you might see blogs getting introduced to schools :).
I think blogger.com will go down with its share (1 ref, 2 ref).
Written on 16/12/06 7:48 AM
As internet user base and education gradually increasing in India, more users want to express their views and read others views. In my opinion, 2/3 of bloggers in 2009 are from India,China and other developing countries.Internet ad rates are also increase so blogger get more money for the same clicks. Hello, New bloggers continue your blogging; you are going to get rich rewards in the coming years for your hard work.
Written on 16/12/06 6:28 PM
If 160 language teachers can get together online to try to make sense of blogging and explore its potential for teaching, while many others have joined to discuss more "advanced" ways of integrating blogs into their work, I'd say this prediction cannot be accurate... and I hope it isn't, because students can learn a lot by blogging!
Visit http://groups.yahoo.com/group/bloggingforbeginners/ if you want to know what I'm talking about.
Gladys
Written on 18/1/07 8:41 AM
Charlie Chaplin did not believe in the future of cinema. Sometimes, we can be awfully short-sighted. History does not show a single case of a technological development which may have been dropped because it reached its saturation point. More users, more products or services. Technology does not stop developing, nor is it threatened by success!
Written on 21/2/07 1:22 AM